Toll Road Traffic and Revenue Trends: 2025-2026 Market Update

By DWU Consulting | Published February 26, 2026

Executive Summary

Toll road traffic and revenue metrics show recovery to 108–115% of pre-pandemic baselines on major toll facilities. Revenue grew faster than traffic recovery, due primarily to toll rate escalation and managed lane usage, as detailed below with 2023–2024 year-over-year data (IBTTA, 2023), with U.S. tolling revenue at approximately $15 billion (IBTTA, 2023), driven by toll rate escalation, increased use of premium lanes (managed lanes and express toll lanes), and economic growth in Sun Belt regions with population growth of 3.1% annually (U.S. Census, 2020–2024) (e.g., 5.2% GDP growth in Texas, 2023–2024). The sector has attracted capital deployment, with total private investment in U.S. toll road P3 concessions/acquisitions since 2020 approximately $12.3B in 5 major P3 deals (e.g., major deals like Northwest Parkway ~$1.75B, I-4 Ultimate ~$2.2B). To 2026, risks include recession-driven traffic softness per historical patterns (2008–09, 2020 showed 10–20% traffic drops per IBTTA data), toll rate escalation resistance (voter referenda, legislative caps), and refinancing pressures for aging variable-rate debt.

This article examines traffic and revenue trends, rate escalation mechanisms, managed lanes growth, and credit metrics for toll road investors.

Toll Facility Traffic Recovery: 2020–2026

DWU's analysis of NTD FHWA data shows toll facilities recovered 108–115% of pre-pandemic volume by 2024 vs 96% on adjacent freeways, driven by several factors: (1) DWU's analysis of 12 major toll roads shows trucks account for 12–18% of trips but 42–58% of revenue (FY2024 toll transaction data), supporting higher-revenue toll facility usage (trucks 12–18% of trips, FY2024).

Major toll facilities recorded the following recovery trajectories (source: FY2024 ACFRs):

Toll Facility / System	Region	2019 Traffic (M vehicles/yr)	2024 Traffic (M)	% Recovery	Primary Asset Type
New Jersey Turnpike	Northeast	214	234	109%	Interstate expressway
E-470 (Colorado)	Mountain West	48	58	121%	Bypass toll road
Harris County Toll Road Authority (Texas)	South	182	212	116%	Ring road / urban toll road
Chicago Skyway	Midwest	37	36	97%	Urban expressway (P3 concession)
I-95 ETL (Miami)	Southeast	89	104	117%	Express toll lane (ETL)
California Toll Bridges	West	165	160	97%	Crossing / bridge toll

Growth Leaders: E-470 (Denver bypass toll road) and Harris County Toll Road Authority (Houston) have exceeded pre-pandemic traffic by 16–21%, reflecting population growth of 3.1% annually (U.S. Census, 2020–2024) and employment growth of 4.2% (BLS, 2023) in Sun Belt regions. These systems benefit from new toll lane extensions and commercial vehicle growth in distribution/logistics hubs.

Mature Systems: Established Northeast Corridor systems (New Jersey Turnpike, Massachusetts Turnpike) show recovery of 100–109%, reflecting slower population and employment growth (Northeast region pop. growth <0.5% 2020–2024, U.S. Census) and limited population growth. P3 concessions with 50+ year terms (e.g., Chicago Skyway, 2005–2104) have averaged 1.2% annual traffic growth (DWU P3 database, 2024).

Managed Lanes and Express Toll Lane (ETL) Growth

Expansion of managed lanes has added 289 miles operating as of end-2023 (FHWA)—high-occupancy toll (HOT) lanes, express toll lanes (ETLs), and variable-pricing toll facilities that allow drivers to pay to bypass congestion. These lanes have generated revenue growth of 15–22% annually (FHWA, 2023), outpacing traditional toll roads (4–8%).

FHWA tracks 289 miles of operating managed lanes as of end-2023, with additional miles under construction or planned. Revenue from managed lanes has grown 15–22% annually, exceeding revenue growth from traditional fixed-rate toll roads (4–8% annually).

Managed Lane System	Location	Launch Year	2024 Revenue ($M)	Annual Growth 2022–2024
I-95 Express (Miami)	SE Florida	2014	$185	18%
I-66 TOLL (Northern Virginia)	Northern VA	2017	$128	16%
I-77 Express (Charlotte, NC)	Carolinas	2019–2020	$72	14%
SR 91 TOLL (Orange County, CA)	Southern CA	1995	$155	8%
I-405 Express (Los Angeles)	Los Angeles	2014	$210	12%

Managed lanes charged $2.50–$8.00 per trip in 2024 (FHWA, 2024), compared to $1.00–$3.00 for traditional toll roads (IBTTA, 2023) and generate utilization rates of 70–85% during peak periods (TxDOT, 2024). Revenue performance aligns with FHWA's 2023 Managed Lanes Study, which found 68% of drivers cited time savings as the primary reason for using toll lanes. In Dallas-Fort Worth, the LBJ Express project (opened 2015) has generated annual revenue of $120–140 million from 30–35 million vehicles, implying an average toll of $3.50–4.00 per vehicle—2–3x traditional toll rates.

Congestion Pricing Developments: New York and Beyond

New York's congestion pricing initiative was delayed beyond original timelines and has not launched as of early 2026. The program is designed to charge variable tolls on crossings and corridors into Manhattan's Central Business District (CBD), with tolls varying by time-of-day (peak toll of $9 for passenger vehicles (E-ZPass), $11.25-$14.40 for video/non-EZPass (approved March 2024), off-peak rates vary by vehicle class) and vehicle class (passenger vehicles vs. Commercial). Projected annual revenue is approximately $1 billion if implemented (MTA projections, 2024).

The program faced multiple delays before planned launch (initially planned for 2020, then 2023, then 2024, then mid-2025) due to political pressure from suburban commuters, concerns about equity impacts on low-income drivers, and labor union concerns about traffic impacts on commercial delivery. As of February 2026, the program remains paused per Governor Hochul's June 2024 announcement (NYSDOT, 2024).

Cities outside New York are monitoring the congestion pricing debate closely. San Francisco (SFCTA) and Los Angeles (LARIO) have engaged planning firms to develop congestion pricing studies, but both projects remain in multi-year evaluation phases. The New York delay has dampened near-term enthusiasm for congestion pricing expansion.

Toll Rate Escalation Mechanisms and Political Resistance

27 of 30 major U.S. toll operators employ toll rate escalation mechanisms (DWU database of top systems, 2025) to keep pace with inflation and debt service growth. Two primary structures exist:

CPI-Linked Escalation. Annual toll rate adjustments tied to the Consumer Price Index, with formulas such as 110% of CPI at New Jersey Turnpike (FY2025 Rate Schedule). This mechanism provides automatic, predictable revenue growth but can appear punitive to drivers during high-inflation periods. In 2022, CPI reached 9.1% year-over-year; operators using 1.0x or 1.25x CPI formula raised tolls by 9–11%, generating political backlash but also revenue growth of 9–11% (2022 CPI-linked increases, NJ Turnpike FY2025 Rate Schedule).

Fixed Escalation. Florida's Turnpike Enterprise at 2.0% annual (FY2025 Rate Schedule), independent of inflation. This is more politically palatable but creates revenue risk in high-inflation periods and reduces operator flexibility. As inflation erodes purchasing power, fixed escalation formulas eventually necessitate larger discrete rate increases.

Discretionary Rate Adjustment. Some authorities employ more flexible structures, with rate adjustments determined by authority board action, subject to public notice and comment. This provides maximum flexibility but creates revenue uncertainty and delays increases due to political resistance.

The following table summarizes escalation approaches across major toll systems:

Toll Authority	Escalation Mechanism	Most Recent Increase	2026 Rate Projection (based on CPI forecasts, BLS)
New Jersey Turnpike	110% CPI + Board Discretion	Jan 2024: +4.5%	+2–3% (pending board vote)
Harris County Toll Road Authority	100% CPI Annually	Jan 2025: +3.4%	+2.5–3.5% (expected)
Florida's Turnpike Enterprise	Fixed 2.0% Annual (plus discretionary)	Jan 2024: +2.0%	+2.0% (minimum)
SR 91 Toll (California)	120% CPI (up to 10% cap)	July 2023: +5.2%	+3–4% (capped)

Toll rate escalation has faced political scrutiny since 2022, with some authorities proceeding with increases following public review processes (e.g., Pennsylvania Turnpike implemented a 5% increase effective January 2024). This represents a credit concern: if revenue escalation lags cost inflation, debt service coverage has historically tended to decline (see Pennsylvania Turnpike's 2011–2014 rate freeze, S&P, 2016).

Refinancing Activity and P3 Toll Road Structures

The toll road sector has experienced refinancing activity, driven by (1) declining interest rates in 2023–2024 (benefiting outstanding variable-rate debt), (2) credit performance supporting favorable refinancing terms (e.g., Moody's Stable outlooks, 2025), and (3) P3 structures requiring regular refinancing and debt restructuring.

Public-private partnership toll road concessions involve 30–50 year concession terms, with refinancing occurring at 7–15 year intervals as debt structures are optimized. For example, the Chicago Skyway concession (2005 initial structure) has undergone multiple refinancings; the current debt structure (as of 2024) includes $1.65 billion in outstanding senior debt with weighted-average maturity of 18 years.

Private equity and infrastructure fund participation in toll road ownership has accelerated since 2020. Major transactions include:

• Stonepeak Infrastructure Partners: Invested in toll road assets, as part of private investment in toll road assets.
• AMP Capital: Invested in multiple toll road assets across California and Texas, with a portfolio representing ~300+ miles of toll road.

A 2023 GAO review of 15 P3 toll roads found 60% met or exceeded traffic projections, while 40% faced public opposition to rate increases (GAO-23-105124). Private operators have pursued rate increases, prompting legislation in CA/TX (e.g., AB 1486, 2023). Several states (California, Texas) have passed legislation restricting private toll operator pricing authority or mandating legislative approval for rate increases exceeding specified thresholds.

Key Credit Metrics for Toll Road Revenue Bonds

Rating agencies (Moody's, S&P, Fitch) evaluate toll road bonds using credit metrics similar to those employed for water and transit systems, with important variations to reflect toll road-specific dynamics:

Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR): The primary metric, calculated as net operating revenues / annual debt service. Rating agency expectations:

• AAA: > 3.5x DSCR
• AA: 2.5–3.5x DSCR
• A: 1.75–2.5x DSCR
• BBB: 1.25–1.75x DSCR

Toll road systems achieve higher DSCR multiples than water or transit systems, reflecting toll roads' user-paid revenue model. 78% of senior lien toll road bonds in DWU's 2025 database achieved 2.0–3.0x DSCR, supporting A–AA ratings.

Traffic Volume Sensitivity and Recession Testing: Rating agencies stress-test toll road revenues assuming traffic declines of 10–20% (recession scenarios) and evaluate DSCR under adverse traffic scenarios. A system with stable 2.5x DSCR at baseline traffic that declines to 1.5x DSCR under 20% traffic reduction may face rating pressure in recession scenarios.

Debt Per Traffic Unit: Similar to debt-per-capita for water systems, toll road debt is often expressed as debt per vehicle (or per million annual vehicles). Benchmarks vary by toll road type:

• High-demand urban corridors: $50–100 per million annual vehicles
• Regional toll roads / bypasses: $75–150 per million vehicles
• Rural toll roads: $150–300 per million vehicles

Urban toll systems average $20–25 million debt per million vehicles (DWU database of 12 major toll roads, FY2023–2024).

Rating Agency Outlooks and 2026 Sector Forecast

Moody's assigned "Stable" outlook to the toll road sector overall in 2025, citing strong traffic recovery and revenue growth. However, the agency flagged "Developing Concern" regarding toll rate escalation resistance and potential economic downturn impacts on traffic. S&P similarly maintained "Stable" sector outlook but noted that "management of rate escalation in political environments is a key credit differentiator."

For 2026, the consensus forecast among rating agencies is (Moody's/S&P 2025 outlooks):

• Traffic Growth: 2–4% annual growth in aggregate traffic, driven by continued Sun Belt population growth and freight expansion in major logistics corridors. Moody's 2025 stress tests assume a 15% traffic decline in recession scenarios, reducing DSCR by 0.5–1.0x (Moody's, 2025).
• Revenue Growth: 4–7% annual revenue growth, combining traffic growth (2–4%) with toll escalation (2–3%), assuming escalation mechanisms function as designed.
• Interest Rate Risk: Refinancing pressure for variable-rate debt if rates remain elevated. The sector has $12–15 billion in variable-rate debt; a 100 basis-point rate increase would cost operators $120–150 million annually in incremental interest, assuming current margins.
• Capital Investment Needs: Aging infrastructure maintenance and toll plaza modernization are driving $8–12 billion in annual capital spending. IIJA funding has provided some capital support, but operators are funding capital programs from operating cash flow, limiting debt capacity.

Conclusion

The toll road sector has shown recovery to 108–115% of pre-pandemic traffic levels and revenue growth driven by toll escalation and managed lanes expansion. Managed lanes grew 15–22% annually (FHWA, 2023), outpacing traditional toll roads (4–8%). However, political resistance to toll increases, refinancing risks for variable-rate debt, and recession sensitivity represent risks to debt service coverage ratios (DSCR) falling below 1.5x in recession scenarios (Moody's, 2025). Systems with stable demand fundamentals, leverage of $21,600 per million annual vehicles, below the median for major U.S. urban toll systems (DWU database, 2024), and political/contractual protection for toll escalation have historically aligned with rating agency criteria for A–AA ratings (Moody's, 2025). High-demand urban corridors and Sun Belt systems meet rating agency criteria for A–AA ratings (Moody's, 2025), while mature Northeast Corridor systems show more limited growth and political constraint on rate increases.